Curve & survival analytics · pump.fun
Most launches stop trading in a week.
A pump.fun token is born on a fixed-price bonding curve and dies when nobody buys the next step. curves.watch plots the curve itself — where a token sits on it, what graduation costs, and how many launches born in the same week are still trading.
- 30 virtual SOL
- 1.073B virtual tokens
- 85 SOL to graduate
- 1% curve fee
The curve, measured at the marker
Every number below reads from the same fixed-supply model the charts use: 30 virtual SOL, 1,073,000,000 virtual tokens, constant product, 85 SOL to graduate. Sample data, computed in your browser.
Place the marker, price the step
One value drives every panel: drag the marker along the curve and the market cap, the price, the cost of a buy and the graduation gap all move together.
Curve desk
constant product · k = 32,190,000,000What a buy does to the price
size against impactHow full the curve is
to the 85 SOL targetGraduation is not sentiment, it is arithmetic: 85 SOL of real reserves and the curve closes. 70.00 SOL still to go at this marker.
Price at every checkpoint
same curve, fixed SOL reserves| SOL on curve | to graduation | price / token | market cap | tokens sold | state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 75 | $0.00000578 | $5.78K | 268,250,000 | on curve |
| 20 | 65 | $0.00000903 | $9.03K | 429,200,000 | on curve |
| 30 | 55 | $0.00001301 | $13.01K | 536,500,000 | on curve |
| 45 | 40 | $0.00002032 | $20.32K | 643,800,000 | on curve |
| 60 | 25 | $0.00002927 | $29.27K | 715,333,333 | on curve |
| 75 | 10 | $0.00003984 | $39.84K | 766,428,571 | on curve |
| 85 | 0 | $0.00004779 | $47.79K | 793,086,957 | graduates |
How long launches keep trading
Launches grouped by the week they were born, counted by how many are still seeing trades in the last 24 hours. A single coin's chart is noise; a birth week with a known number of survivors is a measurement.
Born vs still trading, by birth week
8 weeks · 35,790 launchesSurvival rate per cohort
bars scaled to the best weekHours since birth, share still trading
median launch vs top decile · time-series engineRead the curve, price the step, compare cohorts
The bonding curve is public and fixed. curves.watch makes it legible: where a token sits on it, what graduation costs, and how launches born in the same week survive.
- 01
Read the curve, not the candle
The bonding curve is public: fixed supply, virtual reserves, a target that triggers migration to PumpSwap. Progress along it is objective.
- 02
Price the next step
Move the marker and see what remains on the curve, the price impact of a buy, and how far graduation is in SOL.
- 03
Compare cohorts
Launches are grouped by the week they were born and counted for whether they are still seeing trades. Survival, per cohort, no leaderboard.
$CURVEWATCH · Solana
PRE-LAUNCHThe token behind the curve desk.
$CURVEWATCH is the project token: Solana SPL, pump.fun launch, mint published here first. The analytics it funds are about the bonding curve every pump.fun launch is born on.
Pre-launch — the Solana contract address is published on this page first.
The address above is the only place the mint is published first. Verify it against this page before you buy anything.
Read before you buy
What is a bonding curve, in one line?
A fixed supply and a public formula that sets the price: the more SOL that has been put in, the higher the price of the next token, with no order book and no market maker.
What happens at graduation?
When real reserves reach roughly 85 SOL the curve is filled: the token migrates to a PumpSwap pool (a 0.015 SOL graduation fee applies) and keeps trading as a normal AMM asset. Most launches never get there.
How do you know a token is dead?
It stops seeing trades. curves.watch's job is to keep that number current per cohort, so the survival rate is measured rather than repeated as folklore.
Are the charts live?
The charts are simulated sample data computed in your browser from the public pump.fun curve parameters. A live mode would read the token's on-chain bonding-curve account and the public trade feed.